The BP Well Disaster:Compromised “Down Hole”

I just finished this rather lengthy article at The Oil Drum and it paints a much bleaker picture of the ramifications of this disaster.

What is likely to happen now?

Well…none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact…it’s about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don’t, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit…after that, it goes into the realm of “the worst things you can think of” The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out…as I said…all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn’t any “cap dome” or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?….is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.
We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it….I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens…

This is not my area of expertise and I certainly hope he is wrong. If he isn’t, we are witnessing the destruction of a vital sector of our nation and the lives of millions of people.

50 Responses

  1. I read this recently, and it was truly startling. I tried to get in touch with my big brother to get his opinion of what is happening. Completing wells is his area of expertise. Hope to hear back from him soon, and will post an update.

  2. ):

    Yet, thank you for the heads-up……I am passing it on…..

  3. I remain sceptical. I’ve read some completely batshit articles over there.

    • I know what you mean Swampie.
      I certainly hope he is wrong. I scanned the comments to see if any called this article BS or plausible and found more in agreement than opposed.

  4. There are a lot of folks that agree that Obama is competent. Agreeing on it don’t make it so.

    • A concensus is supposed to settle the science. Argument over!

      Didn’t you get the memo?


      • Ah! Thanks, nuke…..for the gift. : ) –I just had the most exhilarating feeling, realizing how good it is to know the truth of all that. How glad I am for I.C.R., etc. : )

    • I understand.
      Just as there are those who are convinced the swine flu shot was a good idea.

  5. Here’s the highlights of our phone conversation a few minutes ago.

    BP Got Crazy

    “I’m no engineer, but even I know you don’t do what BP did. This was gross negligence.”

    Every layer that is peeled back in this onion will make the widows of the 11 that much wealthier. Maybe one day they can enjoy it, when they quit hurting.”

    I wish I understood more of the technical stuff he was saying, but he was very confident they can get the hole plugged.

    He was also pretty impressed by the shear size and magnitude of the strike.

    “You know, this one well is flowing at 60,000+ BBD, and there are entire fields out there, with a lot of wells on them that don’t produce that kind of volume. BP has found the mother load. There’s just no excuse for them cutting corners and not bringing this well in.”

    “They’ll get it stopped. Once they drill into it, they’ll pump enough cement in it to plug it up. And, eventually the well will be produced. But, it will be someone else that does it. I just don’t see how BP USA can continue as an entity.”

    • Thank you for your faithfulness, nuke.

    • Thanks, nuke.
      I sure hope he is right.
      I was listening to a guy on Bill Bennett’s show early this morning and the guy knew his stuff. Dr. Bill was so flabbergasted by his expertise he just shut up and let his guest go.
      The guy claimed that the relief drilling is not a guarantee. He said it was like hitting something the size of a dinner plate.
      If the well is indeed corrupted, I wonder how they will know where to try and tap into it.
      His guest also quoted an Exxon executive that said since the Valdeez incident, Exxon is actually now a safety company that manages to produce some oil now.

  6. Cracks Show BP Was Battling Gulf Well as Early as February!

    It took 10 days to plug the first cracks, according to reports BP filed with the Minerals Management Service that were later delivered to congressional investigators. Cracks in the surrounding rock continued to complicate the drilling operation during the ensuing weeks. Left unsealed, they can allow explosive natural gas to rush up the shaft.

    They found the mother lode and couldn’t walk away from it despite the dangers.

  7. Is any of the info in this article new? And, if so, how’s it all developing in the 2 days plus hours since this article was published?

  8. I’ve read this at a half-dozen or so websites, and all of them seem to point back to Wayne Madsen.

    I don’t know what to think.

    But, since I’m well within a 200 mi radius of the wellhead, I’m keeping an eye on it.

    • Thank you, nuke.
      I saw the link posted on an FB friend’s page…….when I questioned him, he said this,
      “…Martin Peake is in Kenner La. that is where the New Orleans Airport is located, I have not heard from him in some time, He travels abroad a lot. He usually gives us a heads up warning concerning things. I will Post any new info that I receive on FB.”
      It’s just that my heart is so heavy concerning what’s happening down there, as well as elsewhere in the world concerning our country….. that’s why I pester…..

    • The extremely high levels of methane are a serious problem and I have watched with interest the burning off of the gas from the live feed.
      All of this in its totality reminds me of one phrase uttered just before this administration was sworn in.

      You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

      Could this be the crisis they are looking for to forestall the mid-term elections?
      I don’t know, but I expect to be smelling like gun oil quite often in the coming weeks.

  9. my shipment from ammoman arrives monday. think I’m going to get out to the range next week and see how sore I can get my shoulder

    • What did you order?
      If you really want to know how accurate your rifle and ammo is, don’t just start cranking off rounds with a hot barrel.
      For accuracy purposes, I fire one well aimed shot concentrating on posture, breath and trigger control. Then I take a can of compressed air and shoot it down the barrel. Then I take a bore snake, put a little CLP on the brass portion of the snake and pull it through the barrel. I wait for a little while for the barrel to cool, or in the case of warm weather, blast the outside of the barrel with the can of air to cool it down.
      If you really snug the stock into your shoulder you won’t get nearly as much bruising or soreness.

      • Do you think the same bore snake for a 30.06 would work for the 7.62?

      • Absolutely, they are both 7.62mm in diameter.
        The Moisin is 54mm long, while the 30.06 is 63mm in length.
        That is the only physical difference.

      • excellent! Wally world has one for about $15, and some rem oil (till I can find some CLP), and a $20 butt pad. Then I’m ready to go to the range. Probably on Friday.

        jseedbya, if you’re reading this, try to come on down and we’ll shoot the Mosins, and the pistols too.

      • You might want to try some bore cleaner with copper solvent. Since the barrel isn’t stainless it won’t hurt it none and I would bet a catfish dinner there is a whole bunch of copper fouling, as well as carbon and salt from corrosive primers.
        The bore snake is best for a barrel that is maintained, not for one that has a lot of fouling.

      • mmmm catfish

      • Yeah, 8 ounce channel cats, with hush puppies, cole slaw, fried taters and sweet iced tea.
        It cures all that ails ya’.

  10. 600 rds
    7.62 x 54R 182 GRAIN FMJBT BALL
    PPU Mfg. (Yugoslavia)

  11. Before you start banging away on your commie gun, please make certain it is thoroughly clean and there is no cosmolene hiding in areas that could effect it. That stuff is gooey and attracts dirt and debris. It can bind up the bolt and the claw extractor. That’s right, you have a controlled round feeding system, which means the round has to be picked up from the magazine and no placing of a loose round in the chamber, please.
    Here are a couple of sources on how to break down the weapon.
    Century Arms.


  12. commie gun. henh.

  13. Commie gun or not let me know I’ll go to the range with you.

  14. Be sure and check with the Box O’Truth, especially episode #27.

  15. Have a great Sunday.
    n2l over and out.

    • you too, bud.

      comment from #27,

      “the more I shoot them and clean the bores, the better they look and shoot..”


  16. Just watched #27 like the part about more of a push than a kick.

  17. More grim information on the “down hole” problem.

    BP has confirmed that the failed blowout preventer (BOP) on its Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico is tilting sideways at an acute angle 12 to 15 degrees from perpendicular. Geologists and petroleum engineers are now debating the worst case scenario: growing evidence that the Macondo discovery well’s casings beneath the ocean floor have been irreversibly damaged, possibly to such an extent that it may be impossible to cap the well.

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