The U-turn on Iranian nukes

The release of the most recent NIE on Iranian nuclear activity has left many of us wondering about the reliability of intelligence assessments in general. The Times (UK) reveals some of the background on this story…

American intelligence agencies based this week’s surprise assessment that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 on notes obtained from Iranian military officials.

These included vehement complaints about a decision to shut down what had been an active programme to build a nuclear warhead.

The notes were corroborated by other intelligence, US officials say, including intercepted conversations among Iranian officials, collated in recent months.

The CIA was so concerned that the notes might be part of an elaborate disinformation effort by Tehran that it organised a “red team” to check their veracity.

Once US intelligence officials decided that they were genuine, the notes and other evidence were presented two weeks ago in a White House meeting to the most senior members of President Bush’s national security team, including Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, according to the New York Times.

In the meeting — described by one official as a “vivid exchange” — the intelligence officials were challenged to defend their new assessment that Iran’s nuclear programme had been suspended.

Mr Bush and Mr Cheney have both sounded ominous warnings in recent months about Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. As recently as October Mr Bush warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to a third world war.

The spy operation caused a dramatic reversal of a 2005 US intelligence assessment that stated with “high confidence” that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon. The latest estimate, released on Monday, states with “high confidence” that Iran halted the programme in 2003 and has not restarted it. It also says, however, that Tehran continues its efforts to enrich uranium.

One of the great questions left unanswered by the US intelligence agencies is why Iran decided to suspend the programme in 2003. Monday’s National Intelligecne Assessment said that it was “primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure”, but no firm conclusions about Tehran’s motives appear to have been reached. Source

Dramatic reversal, indeed.

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